TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Popyrin vs C. Ruud (Geneva on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with C. Ruud favoured at 1.32.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Popyrin | C. Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
18.9% | 81.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
20.2% | 79.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
31.9% | 68.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
23.7% | 76.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
27.5% | 72.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Popyrin | hard | 1665 | 84–96 | 180 |
| C. Ruud | hard | 1866 | 119–78 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
C. Ruud leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Geneva | clay | C. Ruud | 2 - 0 |
| April 7, 2026 | Monte Carlo | clay | C. Ruud | 2 - 0 |
| April 10, 2025 | Monte Carlo | clay | A. Popyrin | 2 - 1 |
| July 1, 2023 | Hurlingham | grass | C. Ruud | 2 - 1 |
| W | T. Kokkinakis | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Andrade | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Lehecka | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Choinski | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 1 - 3 | May 31, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used