TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Rinderknech vs A. Bublik (Geneva on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with A. Bublik favoured at 1.55.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Rinderknech | A. Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.7% | 55.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
42.1% | 57.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.0% | 59.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.6% | 57.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.1% | 61.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rinderknech | hard | 1775 | 126–102 | 228 |
| A. Bublik | hard | 1879 | 111–93 | 204 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Geneva | clay | A. Bublik | 2 - 1 |
| May 24, 2022 | French Open | clay | A. Bublik | 3 - 0 |
| Feb. 16, 2022 | Doha | hard | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 9, 2021 | Stockholm | hard | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 0 |
| L | S. Baez | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | C. Tabur | 2 - 1 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 3 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Damm | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | F. Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used