TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Leonard vs H. Sakatsume (French Open on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with H. Sakatsume favoured at 1.12.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Leonard | H. Sakatsume |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
30.8% | 69.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
14.6% | 85.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
22.7% | 77.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
15.7% | 84.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Leonard | hard | 1529 | 152–90 | 242 |
| H. Sakatsume | hard | 1653 | 162–100 | 262 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 16, 2026.
H. Sakatsume leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | French Open | clay | H. Sakatsume | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 13, 2026 | WTA Australian Open | hard | H. Sakatsume | 2 - 0 |
| L | H. Klugman | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Brooks | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | S. Rutlauka | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | V. Podrez | 2 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | A. Kulikova | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Uchijima | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | M. Hontama | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Arseneault | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Wong Hong Yi | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Crawley | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used