TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Jorge vs E. Kalieva (French Open on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with E. Kalieva favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Jorge | E. Kalieva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.1% | 61.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.0% | 79.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.1% | 39.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.8% | 60.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
18.8% | 81.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Jorge | hard | 1479 | 83–93 | 176 |
| E. Kalieva | hard | 1684 | 90–84 | 174 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 8, 2026.
M. Jorge leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Jorge | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. Gallardo Guevara | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | C. Noel | 1 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | H. Shi | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | H. Inoue | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | V. Podrez | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | P. Stearns | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Sebov | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | C. Dolehide | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used