TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Houkes vs M. Cecchinato (French Open on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with M. Cecchinato favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Houkes | M. Cecchinato |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.4% | 48.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.5% | 50.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.4% | 50.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.1% | 49.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
33.7% | 66.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Houkes | clay | 1588 | 207–115 | 322 |
| M. Cecchinato | clay | 1683 | 180–136 | 316 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
M. Cecchinato leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Cecchinato | 2 - 0 |
| July 3, 2025 | Modena | clay | M. Cecchinato | 2 - 0 |
| June 26, 2025 | Milan | clay | M. Cecchinato | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. Carballes Baena | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | P. Zahraj | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | I. Lopez Morillo | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | S. Popovic | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | T. Gentzsch | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | A. Muller | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | F. Agamenone | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | G. A. Olivieri | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | D. Ajdukovic | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used