TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Hontama vs T. Preston (French Open on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with T. Preston favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Hontama | T. Preston |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.7% | 44.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.5% | 42.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
56.6% | 43.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.3% | 57.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hontama | hard | 1597 | 153–123 | 276 |
| T. Preston | hard | 1773 | 139–62 | 201 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
T. Preston leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Hontama | 2 - 0 |
| April 25, 2026 | W100 Tokyo | hard | T. Preston | 2 - 0 |
| April 2, 2026 | W100 Luan (China) | hard | T. Preston | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Inglis | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | H. Sakatsume | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | J. Lu | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Tagger | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Inglis | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | P. Hon | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Kaji | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used