TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Damm vs T. Samuel (French Open on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with M. Damm favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Damm | T. Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.4% | 45.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
54.6% | 45.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
35.9% | 64.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.3% | 51.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.5% | 37.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | French Open | clay | T. Samuel | 2 - 0 |
| May 20, 2025 | Tbilisi | hard | M. Damm | 2 - 1 |
| W | H. Rocha | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Shelbayh | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | K. Coppejans | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Rinderknech | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | J. D. Hara Friend | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Pinnington Jones | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | C. Broom | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | Y. H. Hsu | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used