TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Damm vs A. De Minaur (Hertogenbosch on 2026-06-10) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Damm | A. De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
21.8% | 78.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
9.6% | 90.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.3% | 38.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
30.9% | 69.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
23.8% | 76.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Damm | hard | 1738 | 135–76 | 211 |
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 10, 2026 | Hertogenbosch | grass | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| W | H. Rocha | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Shelbayh | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | K. Coppejans | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Rinderknech | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
All June 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used