TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Chwalinska vs E. Mertens (French Open on 2026-05-28) — the market is efficient, with E. Mertens favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Chwalinska | E. Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
45.1% | 54.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
36.4% | 63.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
40.3% | 59.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.6% | 59.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.4% | 63.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Chwalinska | clay | 1841 | 113–59 | 172 |
| E. Mertens | hard | 1855 | 118–77 | 195 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 6, 2026.
M. Chwalinska leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Chwalinska | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Linette | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | June 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 0 - 2 | June 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | June 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Siegemund | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 28, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used