TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Diaz Acosta vs L. Tien (French Open on 2026-05-28) — the market is efficient, with L. Tien favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Diaz Acosta | L. Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.3% | 48.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.9% | 53.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.2% | 52.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.5% | 51.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
25.4% | 74.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Diaz Acosta | clay | 1816 | 188–98 | 286 |
| L. Tien | hard | 1905 | 155–56 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
L. Tien leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | French Open | clay | L. Tien | 3 - 2 |
| W | M. Poljicak | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | V. Gaubas | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | J. C. Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | F. Forti | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Compagnucci | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 28, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used