TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Barthel vs A-L. Friedsam (French Open on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with M. Barthel favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Barthel | A-L. Friedsam |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.4% | 45.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.0% | 44.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.7% | 38.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.4% | 42.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barthel | hard | 1675 | 102–75 | 177 |
| A-L. Friedsam | hard | 1564 | 84–70 | 154 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
A-L. Friedsam leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | French Open | clay | A-L. Friedsam | 2 - 1 |
| W | L. Samson | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | F. Pace | Walk Over | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Gadamauri | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | E. Vedder | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | D. Salkova | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | L. Zaar | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | J. Pastikova | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | M. Bassols | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | D. Cherubini | 1 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used