TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Arnaldi vs S. Tsitsipas (French Open on 2026-05-28) — the market is efficient, with S. Tsitsipas favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Arnaldi | S. Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.0% | 50.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.7% | 54.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.1% | 36.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.9% | 47.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
39.8% | 60.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Arnaldi | clay | 1861 | 133–70 | 203 |
| S. Tsitsipas | hard | 1815 | 133–83 | 216 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 16, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Arnaldi | 3 - 1 |
| June 2, 2024 | ATP French Open | clay | S. Tsitsipas | 3 - 1 |
| L | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Hussey | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Rice | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 28, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used