TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. van Assche vs B. Nakashima (French Open on 2026-05-28) — the market is efficient, with B. Nakashima favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. van Assche | B. Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.0% | 62.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.7% | 72.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.3% | 62.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. van Assche | hard | 1762 | 101–85 | 186 |
| B. Nakashima | hard | 1848 | 175–101 | 276 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
B. Nakashima leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | French Open | clay | B. Nakashima | 3 - 2 |
| L | T. Droguet | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Rublev | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | L. Miguel | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
All May 28, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used