TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Tien vs G. Monfils (Montreal on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with L. Tien favoured at 1.31.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Tien | G. Monfils |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
63.9% | 36.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
60.6% | 39.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.1% | 33.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
69.6% | 30.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Tien | hard | 1905 | 155–56 | 211 |
| G. Monfils | hard | 1806 | 92–54 | 146 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | H. Gaston | 3 - 2 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 0 | April 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 0 - 2 | April 7, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | April 5, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used