TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Sun vs M. Stoiana (Ilkley on 2026-06-10) — the market is efficient, with L. Sun favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Sun | M. Stoiana |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.1% | 57.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
32.4% | 67.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.3% | 62.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.8% | 46.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Sun | hard | 1723 | 115–74 | 189 |
| M. Stoiana | hard | 1629 | 61–37 | 98 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
M. Stoiana leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 12, 2026 | Ilkley | grass | M. Stoiana | 2 - 0 |
| June 2, 2026 | Birmingham | grass | M. Stoiana | 2 - 1 |
| L | O. Dodin | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | L. Klimovicova | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinina | 0 - 2 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | M. Stoiana | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | E. McDonald | 2 - 1 | June 9, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | P. Stearns | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ku | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | J. Pareja | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. S. Rogers | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
All June 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used