TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Samson vs D. Semenistaja (Modena (Italy) - Qualification on 2026-06-10) — the market is efficient, with L. Samson favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Samson | D. Semenistaja |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
48.6% | 51.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.6% | 53.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.5% | 45.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.9% | 50.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.8% | 46.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Samson | hard | 1613 | 103–62 | 165 |
| D. Semenistaja | clay | 1653 | 148–83 | 231 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
L. Samson leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 10, 2026 | Modena (Italy) - Qualification | clay | L. Samson | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Barthel | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Bronzetti | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Ristic | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Soboleva | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Ristic | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | S. Kraus | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Riera | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 1 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | A. Ruzic | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
All June 10, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used