TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Quevedo vs L. Samson (Modena (Italy) - Qualification on 2026-06-12) — the market is efficient, with L. Samson favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Quevedo | L. Samson |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.4% | 46.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.7% | 56.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
69.4% | 30.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.5% | 44.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
49.7% | 50.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Quevedo | clay | 1748 | 90–49 | 139 |
| L. Samson | hard | 1613 | 103–62 | 165 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
L. Samson leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 2, 2026 | Targu Mures (Romania) - Qualification | clay | L. Samson | 2 - 1 |
| June 12, 2026 | Modena (Italy) - Qualification | clay | L. Samson | 2 - 0 |
| June 5, 2025 | W35 Klagenfurt | clay | K. Quevedo | 2 - 1 |
| June 5, 2024 | Girls French Open | clay | L. Samson | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Samson | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | C. Monnet | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | I. Burillo Escorihuela | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | I. Fetecau | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Barthel | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Bronzetti | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Ristic | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Soboleva | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
All June 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used