TennisEdge's AI bot is backing I. Begu (moneyline) in K. Muchova vs I. Begu (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-24).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Muchova | I. Begu |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
46.1% | 53.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
72.0% | 28.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.1% | 40.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
80.6% | 19.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Muchova | hard | 2060 | 106–43 | 149 |
| I. Begu | clay | 1726 | 81–36 | 117 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 26, 2026.
K. Muchova leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 |
| July 20, 2024 | Palermo | clay | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 |
| June 2, 2023 | WTA French Open | clay | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 |
| April 27, 2023 | WTA Madrid | clay | I. Begu | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | V. Williams | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Parry | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| W | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 0 | June 20, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus identifies a 10.2% value edge on I. Begu, driven largely by a massive discrepancy where the raw ELO model actually makes Begu the favorite (53.9%), contradicting the market's 1.18 odds on Muchova. While the ML model and dampened consensus still favor Muchova to win (70.4%), the market price of 1.18 implies an 85% win probability, creating a substantial mathematical overlay on the underdog. The primary risk is Begu's fatigue from playing 3 matches in 3 days, but the market has likely over-corrected for this, offering value on a player whose underlying stats suggest a much closer contest than the odds indicate.