TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in I. Swiatek vs E. Navarro (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with I. Swiatek favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | I. Swiatek | E. Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.5% | 25.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.7% | 39.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.9% | 38.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
74.6% | 25.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Swiatek | hard | 2021 | 184–49 | 233 |
| E. Navarro | hard | 1713 | 86–63 | 149 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
E. Navarro leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 1, 2025 | Beijing | hard | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 22, 2025 | Australian Open | hard | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Townsend | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | May 31, 2026 |
| L | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Selekhmeteva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus identifies a 9.1% value edge on E. Navarro, driven largely by an ML model outlier (50.6% win prob for Swiatek) and Navarro's superior recent grass record (5-2). However, Navarro is exhibiting extreme fatigue, having played 7 matches in the last 14 days including a final 2 days ago and a match today, totaling nearly 10 hours of court time. Swiatek is well-rested (23 days off) and while she lacks recent grass matches, her elite status and fresh legs provide a significant tactical advantage over a fatigued opponent on a physically demanding surface. The calculated edge on the underdog is rejected due to the high risk of underperformance from exhaustion; the ML model appears to overfit to recent surface stats without weighting fatigue adequately.