TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Alexandrova (moneyline) in E. Alexandrova vs M. Andreeva (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-24).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Alexandrova | M. Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
64.5% | 35.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.6% | 54.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.4% | 45.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.7% | 71.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Alexandrova | hard | 1760 | 103–77 | 180 |
| M. Andreeva | hard | 1957 | 93–37 | 130 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
E. Alexandrova leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 |
| April 17, 2025 | Stuttgart | clay | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Liutova | 1 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Tararudee | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Linette | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Chwalinska | 0 - 2 | June 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | June 4, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus identifies a significant 17.9% edge on E. Alexandrova, driven by the discrepancy between Andreeva's market price (implied 75%) and her projected grass performance (53.3%). Andreeva's lack of grass data (0-0) and transition from a deep clay run introduces high variance, whereas Alexandrova holds a service advantage on grass (73.2% hold). Despite Alexandrova's poor recent form, the odds of 3.30 offer substantial value for a match rated much closer than the public perceives.