K. Kawa vs P. Badosa — Prediction & Analysis

Hamburg · WTA Hamburg - 1/16-finals · July 21, 2026 · 10:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing K. Kawa +3.5 (game handicap) at 1.95 in K. Kawa vs P. Badosa (Hamburg on 2026-07-21). Result: LOST.

Surface clay Odds K. Kawa 4.33 · P. Badosa 1.22

Bot bet

K. Kawa +3.5 (game handicap) @ 1.95 · 1.5u
Result: LOST
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: K. Kawa · P. Badosa · head-to-head record · Hamburg

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method K. Kawa P. Badosa
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
32.2% 67.8%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
16.2% 83.8%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
42.6% 57.4%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
32.2% 67.8%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
22.0% 78.0%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
K. Kawa clay1662 106–68174
P. Badosa clay1835 53–2881

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 14, 2026.

Head to head

P. Badosa leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 22, 2026HamburgclayP. Badosa2 - 0

Recent form

K. Kawa

L C. M. Garcia 0 - 2 Sept. 14, 2026
L E. Bennemann 2 - 0 Sept. 8, 2026
L E. Gorgodze 2 - 1 Aug. 24, 2026
L E. Lys 2 - 1 Aug. 12, 2026
L J. Mikulskyte 1 - 2 Aug. 5, 2026

P. Badosa

L C. Gauff 0 - 2 Sept. 3, 2026
W D. Kasatkina 0 - 2 Sept. 2, 2026
L M. Sherif 2 - 1 July 24, 2026
W P. Udvardy 2 - 0 July 23, 2026
W K. Kawa 0 - 2 July 22, 2026

All July 21, 2026 results & picks →

32 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →