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S. Sorribes Tormo vs A. Charaeva — Prediction & Analysis

Hamburg · WTA Hamburg - 1/16-finals · July 21, 2026 · 10:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Sorribes Tormo vs A. Charaeva (Hamburg on 2026-07-21) — the market is efficient, with A. Charaeva favoured at 1.80.

Surface clay Odds S. Sorribes Tormo 2.00 · A. Charaeva 1.80

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: S. Sorribes Tormo · A. Charaeva · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ S. Sorribes Tormo vs A. Charaeva — WTA Hamburg 1/16 (clay) ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO: 51.7% A | ML: 50.1% A | Sim: 47.3% A
  Book: A @2.00 / B @1.80 | Betfair: A @1.81 / B @1.70 (normalized ~48.4% A / 51.6% B)
  Value pick B, edge +0.05% — noise. All three models within 4pts of exchange. Full consensus.

RECENT FORM
  Sorribes Tormo (1W-3L last 5 shown, 12 fetched):
    07-13 Iasi 1/16 L vs Bondar (1790, Strong) in straights
    07-01 Wimbledon 1/32 L vs Pegula (1877, Elite) — GRIND (TB set)
    06-29 Wimbledon 1/64 W vs Jimenez Kasintseva (1569, Weak) — DOM
    06-06 Makarska SF L vs Timofeeva (1732, Strong)
    06-05 Makarska QF W vs Noha Akugue (1609, Avg) — DOM
    Read: wins only vs Avg/Weak; 0-for vs Strong+ since April. Clay-native but flat form.
  Charaeva (3W-2L last 5 shown, 24 fetched):
    07-15 Iasi 1/8 L vs Putintseva (1749, Strong) in straights
    07-13 Iasi 1/16 W vs Jimenez Kasintseva (1557, Weak) — DOM (6-0 6-1)
    06-25 Wimbledon (qual) Final L vs Kudermetova (1641)
    06-24 Wimbledon (qual) SF W vs Werner (1565, Weak) — GRIND
    06-23 Wimbledon (qual) QF W vs Mandlik (1650, Avg) — DOM
    Read: high volume, beats Weak/Avg, capped by Strong. Solid clay results May (Paris title).

FATIGUE
  A: 1 match / 14d, ~100 min court time, last played 07-13 (7d rest)
  B: 2 matches / 14d, ~141 min, last played 07-15 (5d rest)
  Diff 41 min / 1 match — slight, but both fully rested for Hamburg. No fatigue edge.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: B lost a Final 06-25 — 25d ago, outside window. None for A.
  Venue: no Hamburg history for either player in fetched data.
  Title recency: B — Paris (clay) title 70d ago; historical only.

VERDICT — PASS
  Market and all three models agree this is a coin flip (~48/52). Sim's tiny B lean
  (0.05% edge) is far below any actionable threshold; min odds for B at 52% would be
  ~2.02 vs 1.70 available. No fatigue, letdown, or venue signal breaks the tie in either
  direction. Efficient market, no bet.

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