TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Blockx -2.5 (game handicap) at 1.88 in K. Jacquet vs A. Blockx (Estoril on 2026-07-22). Result: LOST.
═══ K. Jacquet vs A. Blockx — Estoril (clay) 1/8-finals ═══
MODELS
ELO: A 22.5% / B 77.5%
ML: A 37.6% / B 62.4%
Blend: A 22.5% / B 77.5%
Market: book A 2.96 / B 1.40 (impl A 32.1%) | Betfair A 2.68 / B 1.54
Value pick B, edge +9.6% (model vs book). ELO strongly on B; ML more cautious.
RECENT FORM (most recent first)
Jacquet (A) — battling grinder, over-extended:
07-21 Estoril 1/16 W Merida Aguilar (1796) 3 sets GRIND — PLAYED TODAY
07-19 Estoril Final L Daniel (1724) 3 sets
07-18 Estoril SF W Da Rosa Castro (1500) 6-1 6-2 DOM (Weak)
07-13 Umag 1/16 L Trungelliti (1736) 2-6 3-6
07-02 Wimbledon L Bublik (1818) grass, straight-ish
Blockx (B) — genuine clay quality, well rested:
07-14 Umag 1/16 L Droguet (1780) 3 sets
06-30 Wimbledon L Zverev (1859) 4 sets close (grass)
05-24 FrenchOpen W Wong (1300) 6-3 6-4 6-2 DOM
05-10 Rome L Zverev (2030) Elite
05-08 Rome W Griekspoor (1764) 3 sets GRIND
(Madrid run: beat Auger-Aliassime 1850, Cerundolo 1914, Ruud 1987, Garin 1817)
FATIGUE — decisive edge to B
Jacquet: 3 matches/7d, 4/14d, 483 min court time, back-to-back, LAST MATCH TODAY.
Blockx: 1 match/7d & 14d, 134 min, rested since 07-14.
Court-time diff ~349 min — heavier side (Jacquet) badly disadvantaged.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: Jacquet lost Estoril Final 07-19 (0-3d) then won a 3-set 1/16 today — running on empty.
Class gap on clay clearly favors Blockx (top-20 clay scalps in Madrid).
Venue: neutral. Live form + fatigue reinforce the favorite.
VERDICT — BET B -2.5 handicap @ 1.88 (Betfair), 1.5u
Sim prices B -2.5 cover at 64.0% vs 1/1.88 = 53.2% → ~10-12% edge.
Fresh, higher-class Blockx vs an exhausted grinder who played today → comfortable-win /
blowout scenario is live, pushing cover toward ~65%. Handicap beats thin ML (~4%) and Under (~5.5%).
Risk: Jacquet is a battler who often keeps losses within 2-3 games; +2.5 is a tight line.