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L. van Assche vs P. Carreno-Busta — Prediction & Analysis

Estoril · ATP Estoril - 1/8-finals · July 22, 2026 · 10:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. van Assche vs P. Carreno-Busta (Estoril on 2026-07-22) — the market is efficient, with P. Carreno-Busta favoured at 1.48.

Surface clay Odds L. van Assche 2.42 · P. Carreno-Busta 1.48

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: L. van Assche · P. Carreno-Busta · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ ESTORIL (clay) · 1/8-finals ═══
L. van Assche (A) vs P. Carreno-Busta (B)

MODELS
  Market: A 0.379 / B 0.621  (odds A 2.42 / B 1.48)
  ELO:    A 0.320 / B 0.680
  ML:     A 0.420 / B 0.580
  Model:  A 0.320 / B 0.680
  value_pick B, edge +5.9% (vs vig-normalized) — collapses vs raw book.

RECENT FORM
  van Assche (A):
    2026-07-20 Estoril R32 W vs Ferreira Silva (1505,Weak) — 3-set GRIND (tb)
    2026-07-15 Umag R16 L vs Droguet (1798,Strong)
    2026-07-13 Umag R32 W vs Lajovic (1652,Strong)
    2026-06-29 Wimbledon L vs Fucsovics (grass)
    2026-06-20 Parma FINAL W vs Ofner (1755) — TITLE (clay) 31d ago
  Carreno-Busta (B):
    2026-07-21 Estoril R32 W vs Gaubas (1635,Avg) — played TODAY
    2026-07-15 Umag R16 L vs Ugo Carabelli (1809,Strong)
    2026-07-14 Umag R32 W vs Dodig (1640,Avg)
    2026-07-02 Wimbledon L vs Jodar (grass, 5 sets)
    2026-06-29 Wimbledon W vs Shapovalov (grass)

FATIGUE
  A: 3 in 14d, 504min court, last 07-20
  B: 3 in 14d, 371min court, b2b=1, last 07-21 (today)
  Court-time diff 133min > 60 → A (dog) carries heavier legs; slight negative
  for the side already priced as underdog. No edge unlocked for B.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: none (Parma title 31d ago, well outside window).
  Title recency: van Assche TITLE Parma 31d ago (clay) — modest positive for A.
  No venue history at Estoril for either.

VERDICT — PASS
  ML-only market (alt_markets null → no exchange price). Best model B prob 0.680
  vs raw book 1/1.48=0.676 → executable edge ~0.4%. ML model (0.58) actually
  disagrees, sitting BELOW market on B. min_odds for B = 1.05/0.680 = 1.544;
  book 1.48 < 1.544 → automatic PASS on the minimum-odds rule. No exchange
  liquidity + no ≥8% book edge (Pricing Discipline #4). Fatigue tilts toward the
  favourite B but doesn't create a priceable dog edge. Models and market broadly
  aligned on B as winner. No bet.

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