TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Sinner vs J. M. Cerundolo (French Open on 2026-05-28) — the market is efficient, with J. Sinner favoured at 1.01.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Sinner | J. M. Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
89.7% | 10.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
89.3% | 10.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
83.3% | 16.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
87.4% | 12.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
96.3% | 3.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sinner | hard | 2299 | 219–45 | 264 |
| J. M. Cerundolo | clay | 1838 | 205–111 | 316 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 29, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. M. Cerundolo | 3 - 2 |
| July 3, 2023 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 |
| W | A. Zverev | 3 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | N. Djokovic | 3 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | Z. Kolar | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 28, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used