TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Sinner vs A. Rublev (Rome on 2026-05-14) — the market is efficient, with J. Sinner favoured at 1.04.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Sinner | A. Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
71.5% | 28.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
81.7% | 18.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
79.9% | 20.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.7% | 22.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
92.6% | 7.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 29, 2026.
J. Sinner leads 7–2 over 9 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| June 2, 2025 | French Open | clay | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 |
| Aug. 17, 2024 | ATP Cincinnati | hard | J. Sinner | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 11, 2024 | Montreal | hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 23, 2024 | ATP Australian Open | hard | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 |
| W | A. Zverev | 3 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | N. Djokovic | 3 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 14, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used