TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in I. Swiatek vs E. Svitolina (Rome on 2026-05-14) — the market is efficient, with I. Swiatek favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | I. Swiatek | E. Svitolina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.0% | 32.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
81.8% | 18.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.6% | 45.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
68.1% | 31.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.2% | 23.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Swiatek | hard | 2021 | 184–49 | 233 |
| E. Svitolina | hard | 2004 | 91–52 | 143 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
Level at 3–3 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Rome | clay | E. Svitolina | 2 - 1 |
| March 12, 2026 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | E. Svitolina | 2 - 1 |
| June 3, 2025 | French Open | clay | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| March 25, 2025 | Miami | hard | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 21, 2024 | WTA Dubai | hard | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Townsend | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | May 31, 2026 |
| W | P. Kudermetova | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| L | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | Walk Over | June 25, 2026 |
| W | L. Samsonova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 14, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used