TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Cirstea vs C. Gauff (Rome on 2026-05-14) — the market is efficient, with C. Gauff favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Cirstea | C. Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.4% | 66.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
20.3% | 79.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
77.1% | 22.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.6% | 56.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Cirstea | hard | 1917 | 94–63 | 157 |
| C. Gauff | hard | 2045 | 155–60 | 215 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 23, 2026.
C. Gauff leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Rome | clay | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 |
| April 26, 2026 | Madrid | clay | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| March 23, 2026 | Miami | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Birrell | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 0 - 2 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Inglis | 2 - 1 | June 9, 2026 |
All May 14, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used