J. Shang vs L. Sonego — Prediction & Analysis

Cincinnati · ATP Cincinnati - 1/64-finals · Aug. 13, 2026 · 14:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing L. Sonego (moneyline) at 2.38 in J. Shang vs L. Sonego (Cincinnati on 2026-08-13). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds J. Shang 1.72 · L. Sonego 2.10

Bot bet

L. Sonego (moneyline) @ 2.38 · 0.5u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: J. Shang · L. Sonego · head-to-head record · Cincinnati

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method J. Shang L. Sonego
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
51.3% 48.7%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
50.8% 49.2%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
63.0% 37.0%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
55.1% 44.9%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
55.0% 45.0%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
J. Shang hard1678 93–62155
L. Sonego hard1737 84–93177

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 31, 2026.

Head to head

Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 14, 2026CincinnatihardL. Sonego2 - 0
Jan. 8, 2026Hong KonghardJ. Shang2 - 0

Recent form

J. Shang

L M. Trungelliti 2 - 3 Aug. 31, 2026
L L. Sonego 0 - 2 Aug. 14, 2026
L L. Darderi 2 - 1 Aug. 6, 2026
W A. Rublev 2 - 1 Aug. 4, 2026
W D. Vallejo 0 - 2 Aug. 2, 2026

L. Sonego

L F. Passaro 1 - 2 Sept. 8, 2026
L A. Zverev 3 - 2 Sept. 2, 2026
W A. Mannarino 0 - 2 Aug. 26, 2026
L J. Duckworth 0 - 2 Aug. 26, 2026
W P. Herbert 2 - 1 Aug. 24, 2026

All Aug. 13, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →