TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Pegula (moneyline) in J. Pegula vs C. Gauff (Wimbledon on 2026-07-07).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | C. Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.6% | 31.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.4% | 28.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
58.5% | 41.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.1% | 36.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
56.3% | 43.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 6–4 over 10 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 7, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 2, 2025 | Finals - Riyadh | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 12, 2025 | Wuhan | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 3, 2024 | WTA Finals - Riyadh | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 |
| June 23, 2024 | WTA Berlin | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
All July 7, 2026 results & picks →
═══ J. Pegula vs C. Gauff — Wimbledon QF (grass) ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
Market (de-vig): Pegula 56.3% @1.74 | Gauff 43.7% @2.24
ELO: 68.6% A | ML: 71.4% A | Blend: 63.1% A
Betfair: 1.62 / 2.58 (implied ~61.4% A) — sharp market already ahead of book
Value pick: A, model edge ~6.8%
RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all fetched matches used)
Pegula (4-0 Wimbledon, Berlin finalist):
07-05 W Jovic (1922, Elite) 4-6 6-3 6-1 — solid 3-set win vs Elite
07-03 W Bouzas Maneiro (1734, Strong) 6-1 6-3 — DOM
07-01 W Sorribes Tormo (1541, Avg) 7.8-6.6 6-1 — GRIND (TB)
06-29 W Vidmanova (1622, Avg) 7-5 6-3 — GRIND
06-21 L Noskova (1853, Elite) Berlin Final 4-6 6-4 3-6
Grass block: beat Sabalenka (1931) + Keys (1836) in Berlin. Elite grass form.
Gauff (4-0 Wimbledon, all grinders after R1):
07-05 W Bencic (1891, Elite) 6-4 3-6 4-6 — 3-set GRIND
07-03 W Liu (1688, Strong) 3-6 7-6 2-6 — GRIND (TB)
07-01 W Sierra (1657, Strong) 3-6 6-3 6.7-7.10 — GRIND (TB)
06-29 W Korpatsch (1332, Weak) 2-6 1-6 — DOM vs Weak only
06-17 L Badosa (1716, Strong) Berlin R16
Thin grass prep; three straight 3-setters this fortnight.
FATIGUE
Pegula: 4 matches/12 sets 14d, 265 court min, last 07-05
Gauff: 4 matches/12 sets 14d, 337 court min, last 07-05
Diff 72 min > 60 → Gauff disadvantaged.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: none (Pegula lost Berlin Final 16d ago — outside window; Gauff Rome Final 52d)
Venue: both 4-0 at this Wimbledon — neutral
Title recency: none in window for either
VERDICT
Both ELO and ML disagree with book in same direction; Betfair (1.62) confirms
book 1.74 is stale. Qualitative validates: Pegula's cleaner run + Berlin final
vs Elite grass field, Gauff grinding tiebreak 3-setters with +72min court time
and only one DOM win (vs Weak). Win prob Pegula ~0.63 vs implied 0.563 →
edge ~6.7% → BET A 1.5u.
Risk: Gauff's elite ceiling/athleticism, H2H not in brief, QF pressure both ways.