TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Auger-Aliassime vs N. Djokovic (Wimbledon on 2026-07-07) — the market is efficient, with N. Djokovic favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Auger-Aliassime | N. Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
16.1% | 83.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.8% | 46.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
16.1% | 83.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
37.6% | 62.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Auger-Aliassime | hard | 1996 | 169–85 | 254 |
| N. Djokovic | hard | 2085 | 127–26 | 153 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
N. Djokovic leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 7, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | N. Djokovic | 3 - 2 |
| Sept. 25, 2022 | ATP Laver Cup | hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 0 |
| June 22, 2022 | Exhibition Hurlingham | grass | N. Djokovic | 2 - 0 |
| May 13, 2022 | Rome | clay | N. Djokovic | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 2 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Prizmic | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | R. Safiullin | 1 - 3 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 3 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
All July 7, 2026 results & picks →
═══ F. Auger-Aliassime vs N. Djokovic — Wimbledon QF (grass) ═══
MODELS & MARKET
Odds: FAA 2.61 (impl 37.6%) | Djokovic 1.57 (impl 63.7%)
ELO: FAA 16.1% → value B (+21.5pt) | ML: FAA 53.1% → value A (+15.6pt)
Models point in OPPOSITE directions around market — no consensus.
RECENT FORM (last 5 each; all fetched matches used in classification)
FAA — 4-0 at Wimbledon, but GRIND-heavy:
07-05 W Davidovich Fokina (1812 Strong) — GRIND (5 sets, 3 TBs)
07-03 W Zheng (1750 Strong) — GRIND (TB set 1, then 6-2 6-1)
07-01 W Prizmic (1476 Weak) — GRIND (TB)
06-29 W Shevchenko (1346 Weak) — DOM
06-19 L Tiafoe (1704 Strong) — Halle QF exit
Pre-Wimbledon grass mediocre (Halle QF, Hertogenbosch QF losses).
Djokovic — 4-0 at Wimbledon, laboring vs modest opposition:
07-05 W Safiullin (1759 Strong) — GRIND (4 sets, TB)
07-03 W Rinderknech (1665 Strong) — GRIND (4 sets, TB set)
07-01 W Tsitsipas (1685 Strong) — DOM (straight sets, comfortable margins)
06-29 W Wu (1382 Weak) — 4 sets vs a 1382 qualifier
06-26 W Paul — exhibition (Hurlingham)
Season context: FO 3R loss to Fonseca, Rome R1 loss to Prizmic (whom FAA beat in straights).
FATIGUE
FAA: 4 matches/14d, 12 sets, 586 min, last 07-05
Djokovic: 5 matches/14d, 15 sets, 725 min, last 07-05
Headline diff 139 min favors FAA, but Djokovic's total includes a low-intensity
exhibition 11 days out — inside Wimbledon it's ~15 sets vs 14. Roughly equal;
slight edge FAA on age (Djokovic 39) vs FAA's own 3-TB five-setter.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: None (no recent finals either side).
Venue: both 4-0 at this Wimbledon; Djokovic historic pedigree.
Titles: none in window.
VERDICT: LEAN A (no bet)
ELO's 21pt edge on Djokovic is killed qualitatively — an 84% player doesn't grind
4-setters vs 1382/1665/1759 opposition at 39. ML's 16pt edge on FAA is only
partially validated — Djokovic laboring + poor season form, but FAA's own 5-set
slog and shaky pre-event grass form undercut it, and the DOM Tsitsipas win shows
Djokovic's ceiling is intact. Models cancel, qualitative mixed → no bet.
Match forecast: Djokovic ~58/42, closer than the market's 64/36.