TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in N. Osaka vs K. Muchova (Wimbledon on 2026-07-07) — the market is efficient, with N. Osaka favoured at 1.78.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Osaka | K. Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
46.4% | 53.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.0% | 50.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
44.7% | 55.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.8% | 51.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.9% | 47.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Osaka | hard | 1920 | 80–36 | 116 |
| K. Muchova | hard | 2060 | 106–43 | 149 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
K. Muchova leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 7, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 |
| June 27, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | K. Muchova | 1 - 0 |
| Sept. 4, 2025 | US Open | hard | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 15, 2025 | Australian Open | hard | N. Osaka | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 30, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
All July 7, 2026 results & picks →
═══ N. Osaka vs K. Muchova — Wimbledon QF (grass) ═══
MODELS & MARKET
Odds: Osaka 1.78 (52.9% impl) | Muchova 2.00 (50.0% impl)
ELO: 46.4% A → favors Muchova (53.6%)
ML: 50.0% A → coin flip
Blend: 48.8% A | value_pick B, edge ~4.1%
Betfair exchange: Osaka 1.78 / Muchova 2.26 (~44% B, near vig-free) — sharp market DISAGREES with the "value" on B
RECENT FORM (last 5 each; full history used for classification)
Osaka (8-1 on grass run):
07-05 Wimbledon R16 W vs Sabalenka (Elite 1942) — GRIND (TB 7.7-6.2)
07-03 Wimbledon R32 W vs Kasatkina (Strong 1669) — DOM 6-1 6-3
07-01 Wimbledon R64 W vs Gasanova (Strong 1683) — DOM 6-3 6-2
06-29 Wimbledon R128 W vs Jacquemot (Avg 1582) — DOM 6-1 7-5
06-27 Bad Homburg F L vs Muchova — 1-6 0-1 (retirement-shortened)
Muchova (10-0 on grass run):
07-05 Wimbledon R16 W vs Krejcikova (Elite 1873) — tough 3-set 7-5 5-7 6-3
07-03 Wimbledon R32 W vs Sawangkaew (Strong 1706) — GRIND (TB) 6-2 7-6
07-01 Wimbledon R64 W vs Zhang (Strong 1656) — DOM 6-3 6-2
06-29 Wimbledon R128 W vs Zakharova (Strong 1675) — DOM 6-3 6-2
06-27 Bad Homburg F W vs Osaka 6-1 1-0 ret. — TITLE
Both have DOM wins over Strong opposition; Osaka's marquee scalp (Sabalenka, Elite) slightly outranks Muchova's (Krejcikova).
FATIGUE (precomputed)
Osaka: 9 matches/14d, 27 sets, 479min, 3 back-to-back, last 07-05
Muchova: 8 matches/14d, 24 sets, 495min, 3 back-to-back, last 07-05
Court-time diff 16min, matches diff 1 → Roughly equal. Both heavy but symmetric.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: Muchova won Bad Homburg Final 10d ago — outside 7d window → None. Osaka lost that Final 10d ago — outside 3d → None.
Title recency: TITLE: Bad Homburg 10d ago (grass) for Muchova — live grass form confirmed.
Venue: both 4-0 at Wimbledon this fortnight — no differential.
H2H: Muchova beat Osaka 10d ago on grass, but 6-1 1-0 ret. — signal truncated/tainted.
VERDICT: LEAN Muchova — no bet.
ELO tilts B (+4pt vs market) but ML is a coin flip, so only one model disagrees. Qualitative validation is soft: the H2H win was a retirement, Osaka has since beaten Elite Sabalenka, and fatigue is equal. Decisively, the Betfair exchange prices Muchova at 2.26 — the sharp market says the bookmaker's 2.00 is NOT off-market value. Model-market gap without sharp-market confirmation → stand down.