TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Faria vs L. Neumayer (French Open on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with J. Faria favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Faria | L. Neumayer |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.0% | 51.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.3% | 53.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.6% | 51.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
51.3% | 48.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Faria | clay | 1796 | 92–74 | 166 |
| L. Neumayer | clay | 1671 | 185–123 | 308 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
J. Faria leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Faria | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. O'Connell | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | G. Bueno | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | B. Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | F. Maestrelli | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | J. C. Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Topo | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Poljicak | 2 - 1 | July 11, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used