TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in I. Simakin vs L. Draxl (French Open on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with L. Draxl favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | I. Simakin | L. Draxl |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.3% | 80.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
14.3% | 85.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
16.8% | 83.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
26.8% | 73.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Simakin | hard | 1647 | 165–82 | 247 |
| L. Draxl | hard | 1669 | 166–82 | 248 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 23, 2026.
L. Draxl leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | French Open | clay | L. Draxl | 2 - 1 |
| W | G. A. Boitan | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Midon | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | T. Barrios Vera | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | D. Kuzmanov | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Janvier | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Samuel | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | S. Mochizuki | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | C. Chidekh | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Holmgren | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Hurrion | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used