H. Rocha vs N. Mejia — Prediction & Analysis

Cincinnati · ATP Cincinnati - Final · Aug. 13, 2026 · 16:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing N. Mejia (moneyline) at 2.24 in H. Rocha vs N. Mejia (Cincinnati on 2026-08-13). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds H. Rocha 1.61 · N. Mejia 2.16

Bot bet

N. Mejia (moneyline) @ 2.24 · 0.5u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: H. Rocha · N. Mejia · head-to-head record · Cincinnati

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method H. Rocha N. Mejia
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
49.3% 50.7%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
45.6% 54.4%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
52.4% 47.6%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
51.5% 48.5%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
57.3% 42.7%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
H. Rocha hard1641 91–49140
N. Mejia hard1585 90–104194

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 26, 2026.

Head to head

N. Mejia leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 13, 2026CincinnatihardN. Mejia2 - 1
June 22, 2026WimbledongrassN. Mejia2 - 1

Recent form

H. Rocha

L D. Lajovic 0 - 2 Sept. 11, 2026
W S. Rodriguez Taverna 2 - 0 Sept. 10, 2026
W C. Taberner 2 - 0 Sept. 8, 2026
L L. Harris 1 - 2 Aug. 26, 2026
W M. Mmoh 2 - 0 Aug. 25, 2026

N. Mejia

L L. Draxl 1 - 2 Aug. 25, 2026
L C. Ugo Carabelli 2 - 0 Aug. 19, 2026
L A. Walton 2 - 0 Aug. 14, 2026
W H. Rocha 1 - 2 Aug. 13, 2026
W J. Fearnley 2 - 1 Aug. 12, 2026

All Aug. 13, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →