TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Hurkacz vs F. Tiafoe (French Open on 2026-05-28) — the market is efficient, with H. Hurkacz favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Hurkacz | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.0% | 30.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.8% | 20.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.9% | 47.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.6% | 32.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.0% | 43.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Hurkacz | hard | 1777 | 125–81 | 206 |
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1866 | 126–85 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | French Open | clay | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 2 |
| Aug. 18, 2024 | ATP Cincinnati | hard | F. Tiafoe | 1 - 0 |
| Sept. 24, 2023 | ATP Laver Cup | hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 25, 2022 | Vienna | hard | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 2 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | T. Paul | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Ofner | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 28, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used