TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Echargui (moneyline) in H. Gaston vs M. Echargui (Wimbledon on 2026-06-25).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Gaston | M. Echargui |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.1% | 49.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.2% | 25.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.1% | 37.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.9% | 28.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Gaston | hard | 1716 | 113–88 | 201 |
| M. Echargui | hard | 1570 | 139–69 | 208 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
H. Gaston leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | H. Gaston | 3 - 1 |
| L | D. Chan | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Torres | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Droguet | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Dzumhur | 0 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical model suggests a 6.2% edge on underdog M. Echargui, driven largely by the ELO model viewing the match as a coin flip (50.1%). However, the more predictive Machine Learning model projects a 74.2% win probability for Gaston, which aligns closely with the devigged market price (71.9%), indicating the market has accurately priced this matchup. Qualitative analysis of market trends further warns that Echargui is 'possibly over-priced' due to the market chasing his recent form, directly contradicting the value signal. Given the ML model's agreement with the market and the heavy favorite warning at 1.26 odds, the perceived value is insufficient to warrant a bet.