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C. Smith vs M. Zheng — Prediction & Analysis

Wimbledon · ATP Wimbledon - Final · June 25, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Smith vs M. Zheng (Wimbledon on 2026-06-25) — the market is efficient, with M. Zheng favoured at 1.65.

Surface grass Odds C. Smith 2.20 · M. Zheng 1.65

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: C. Smith · M. Zheng · head-to-head record · Wimbledon

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method C. Smith M. Zheng
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
51.9% 48.1%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
33.1% 66.9%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
62.2% 37.8%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
51.9% 48.1%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
42.9% 57.1%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
C. Smith hard1644 63–38101
M. Zheng hard1772 67–35102

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 26, 2026.

Head to head

M. Zheng leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
June 25, 2026WimbledongrassM. Zheng3 - 1

Recent form

C. Smith

L . R. Pascual F. 2 - 1 July 26, 2026
L J. Wolf 0 - 2 July 21, 2026
L Y. Bu 1 - 2 July 18, 2026
W H. Matsuoka 2 - 0 July 16, 2026
W A. Ilagan 2 - 1 July 14, 2026

M. Zheng

L M. Kecmanovic 1 - 2 Aug. 4, 2026
W K. Nishikori 2 - 0 Aug. 1, 2026
L A. Gea 2 - 1 July 30, 2026
W M. Landaluce 2 - 0 July 29, 2026
L J. Fearnley 2 - 0 July 25, 2026

All June 25, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used