F. Cobolli vs A. Fils — Prediction & Analysis

Cincinnati · · Aug. 22, 2026 · 16:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing F. Cobolli (moneyline) at 3.56 in F. Cobolli vs A. Fils (Cincinnati on 2026-08-22). Result: LOST.

Surface hard Odds F. Cobolli 3.38 · A. Fils 1.25

Bot bet

F. Cobolli (moneyline) @ 3.56 · 0.5u
Result: LOST
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: F. Cobolli · A. Fils · head-to-head record · Cincinnati

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method F. Cobolli A. Fils
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
33.0% 67.0%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
38.3% 61.7%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
26.5% 73.5%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
30.9% 69.1%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
27.0% 73.0%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
F. Cobolli hard1829 87–77164
A. Fils hard1989 99–63162

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 5, 2026.

Head to head

A. Fils leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 22, 2026CincinnatihardA. Fils2 - 0
April 9, 2025Monte CarloclayA. Fils2 - 0
Nov. 29, 2023ATP Next Gen Finals - JeddahhardA. Fils3 - 0

Recent form

F. Cobolli

L A. Blockx 3 - 1 Sept. 5, 2026
W T. Schoolkate 1 - 3 Sept. 3, 2026
W F. Comesana 2 - 3 Sept. 1, 2026
L A. Fils 0 - 2 Aug. 22, 2026
W T. Paul 1 - 2 Aug. 20, 2026

A. Fils

L S. Tsitsipas 3 - 1 Aug. 31, 2026
W F. Tiafoe 2 - 1 Aug. 23, 2026
W F. Cobolli 0 - 2 Aug. 22, 2026
W T. A. Tirante 0 - 2 Aug. 21, 2026
W A. De Minaur 2 - 0 Aug. 19, 2026

All Aug. 22, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →