TennisEdge's AI bot is backing F. Tiafoe (moneyline) at 2.10 in B. Nakashima vs F. Tiafoe (Cincinnati on 2026-08-22). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Nakashima | F. Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.9% | 50.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.9% | 59.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.9% | 45.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.9% | 50.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
49.3% | 50.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nakashima | hard | 1871 | 187–108 | 295 |
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1908 | 140–93 | 233 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 3, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 7–1 over 8 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 22, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 28, 2026 | Acapulco | hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
| April 6, 2025 | Houston | clay | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 26, 2024 | ATP Tokyo | hard | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 |
| July 30, 2022 | Atlanta | hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 2 - 1 | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Jacquet | 0 - 2 | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| W | H. Medjedovic | 1 - 2 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 2 - 0 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 | Oct. 11, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 0 - 2 | Oct. 9, 2026 |
| L | A. Fils | 2 - 0 | Oct. 2, 2026 |
All Aug. 22, 2026 results & picks →