TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Cerundolo vs H. Gaston (French Open on 2026-05-28) — the market is efficient, with F. Cerundolo favoured at 1.10.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Cerundolo | H. Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
83.9% | 16.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
90.0% | 10.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.5% | 31.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
80.8% | 19.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
86.4% | 13.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cerundolo | clay | 1861 | 125–69 | 194 |
| H. Gaston | hard | 1716 | 113–88 | 201 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 30, 2026.
F. Cerundolo leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | French Open | clay | F. Cerundolo | 3 - 1 |
| Feb. 18, 2025 | ATP Rio de Janeiro | clay | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 |
| May 22, 2024 | Lyon | clay | H. Gaston | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Gea | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 0 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Miguel | 3 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 3 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 1 - 3 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | D. Chan | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. Torres | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Droguet | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Dzumhur | 0 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
All May 28, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used