TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Rybakina vs T. Maria (London on 2026-06-11) — the market is efficient, with E. Rybakina favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Rybakina | T. Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
63.2% | 36.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
80.4% | 19.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
30.5% | 69.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.0% | 42.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
74.6% | 25.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Rybakina | hard | 2149 | 174–69 | 243 |
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 27, 2026.
E. Rybakina leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 12, 2026 | London | grass | E. Rybakina | 2 - 1 |
| June 13, 2025 | London | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 3, 2023 | WTA Beijing | hard | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | C. McNally | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Boisson | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All June 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used