TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Nava vs P. Martinez (French Open on 2026-05-22) — the market is efficient, with E. Nava favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Nava | P. Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
65.2% | 34.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.5% | 25.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.5% | 36.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.7% | 32.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.8% | 31.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Nava | hard | 1646 | 114–94 | 208 |
| P. Martinez | clay | 1631 | 123–103 | 226 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
P. Martinez leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | French Open | clay | E. Nava | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 8, 2024 | Valencia Challenger Men | clay | P. Martinez | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 7, 2021 | Seville | clay | P. Martinez | 2 - 0 |
| L | I. Buse | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | H. Stewart | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | T. Daniel | 2 - 0 | June 11, 2026 |
| W | P. Boscardin Dias | 1 - 2 | June 9, 2026 |
| W | H. Squire | 0 - 2 | June 6, 2026 |
| L | H. Dellien | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | H. Rocha | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | D. Jorda Sanchis | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
All May 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used