TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Yastremska vs T. Maria (Nottingham on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with T. Maria favoured at 1.82.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Yastremska | T. Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.1% | 59.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.6% | 47.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
59.7% | 40.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.7% | 54.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
49.5% | 50.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Yastremska | hard | 1707 | 86–81 | 167 |
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 20, 2026.
T. Maria leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 17, 2026 | Nottingham | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 2, 2023 | Hua Hin | hard | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Ito | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Dudeney | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Tomljanovic | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used