TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Nakashima vs I. Buse (London on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with B. Nakashima favoured at 1.31.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Nakashima | I. Buse |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
77.4% | 22.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
70.0% | 30.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
75.2% | 24.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
72.5% | 27.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nakashima | hard | 1848 | 175–101 | 276 |
| I. Buse | clay | 1814 | 133–81 | 214 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
B. Nakashima leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 17, 2026 | London | grass | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Fritz | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | L. Miguel | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used