TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. De Minaur vs D. Shapovalov (London on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.24.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. De Minaur | D. Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
84.9% | 15.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.7% | 20.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
66.1% | 33.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
80.2% | 19.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
74.5% | 25.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
| D. Shapovalov | hard | 1830 | 102–78 | 180 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 4–0 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 17, 2026 | London | grass | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| April 29, 2025 | Madrid | clay | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 21, 2022 | Stockholm | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 9, 2022 | Montreal | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | R. Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | R. Hijikata | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used