TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Bonzi vs A. De Minaur (Hertogenbosch on 2026-06-12) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Bonzi | A. De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.2% | 64.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
22.4% | 77.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
55.9% | 44.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.8% | 62.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
21.1% | 78.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bonzi | hard | 1746 | 163–94 | 257 |
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 4–1 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 12, 2026 | Hertogenbosch | grass | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 24, 2023 | Marseille | hard | B. Bonzi | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 21, 2023 | Australian Open | hard | A. De Minaur | 3 - 0 |
| Oct. 18, 2022 | Stockholm | hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 15, 2022 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | — | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | H. Dellien | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | J. D. Hara Friend | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Mmoh | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | B. Bicknell | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
All June 12, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical edge on Bonzi is invalid; the ELO model overvalues his recent streak while ignoring severe fatigue (12 sets in 7 days), whereas the high-accuracy ML model aligns with the market price.