TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Rus vs J. Ortenzi (French Open on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with J. Ortenzi favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Rus | J. Ortenzi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
45.0% | 55.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.6% | 56.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.5% | 47.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.0% | 53.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
44.1% | 55.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rus | clay | 1559 | 160–79 | 239 |
| J. Ortenzi | clay | 1581 | 165–76 | 241 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 31, 2026.
J. Ortenzi leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Ortenzi | 2 - 1 |
| L | O. Dodin | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | D. Salkova | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | I. M. Serban | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Mintegi Del Olmo | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Avanesyan | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | K. Sebov | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Yaneva | 0 - 2 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | F. Pace | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | K. Quevedo | 2 - 0 | June 8, 2026 |
| W | V. Turini | 2 - 1 | June 7, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used