TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Moro Canas vs S. Napolitano (French Open on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with A. Moro Canas favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Moro Canas | S. Napolitano |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.1% | 60.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
28.3% | 71.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
18.1% | 81.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.5% | 71.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Moro Canas | clay | 1578 | 92–83 | 175 |
| S. Napolitano | clay | 1616 | 94–68 | 162 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 15, 2026.
A. Moro Canas leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Moro Canas | 2 - 1 |
| W | R. Bertrand | 2 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | O. Crawford | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | I. Marrero Curbelo | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Giunta | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Muller | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | Z. Piros | 1 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | G. Villanueva | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Barrena | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. Balshaw | 2 - 1 | July 13, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used