TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Krueger vs M. Stoiana (French Open on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with A. Krueger favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Krueger | M. Stoiana |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.9% | 47.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.2% | 30.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
36.1% | 63.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
52.7% | 47.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
67.9% | 32.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Krueger | hard | 1720 | 94–83 | 177 |
| M. Stoiana | hard | 1629 | 61–37 | 98 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
A. Krueger leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Krueger | 2 - 1 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | P. Stearns | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ku | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | J. Pareja | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. S. Rogers | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used